Statistics Canada estimates that the Toronto census metropolitan area (CMA) changed by about negative 1,000 people in the 12 months ending July 1, 2025, after a record gain of 269,143 the year before. The City of Toronto itself lost an estimated 9,000 residents in that period, while Durham, York, and Halton regions grew. These are estimates, not census counts, and they can be revised after the 2026 Census.
What Statistics Canada reported
In its release of January 14, 2026, Statistics Canada described the Toronto CMA as showing “virtually no change” between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025: a drop of 992 people. The agency named non-permanent residents as the main cause. The CMA had a net loss of 44,792 of them, after a net gain of 228,025 the year before.
The other components were less dramatic. The CMA recorded 63,778 births, 40,675 deaths, and 115,348 immigrants. On a net basis it lost 17,159 people to emigration, 12,698 to other provinces, and 64,794 to other parts of Ontario.
City, suburbs, and regions
The Centre for Urban Research and Land Development at Toronto Metropolitan University, working from Statistics Canada tables, summarized the same year for the census divisions of the Greater Toronto Area. Its figures are rounded.
| Area | Estimated change, July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025 |
|---|---|
| Toronto CMA | about -1,000 |
| City of Toronto | about -9,000 |
| Peel Region | about -22,000 |
| York Region | about +11,000 |
| Durham Region | about +17,000 |
| Halton Region | about +7,000 |
Peel, which contains Mississauga and Brampton, lost more people than the City of Toronto did, so the numbers do not show a simple move from city to suburbs. Durham, York, and Halton together added about 35,000, and Peel and the city together lost about 31,000.
Limits of the data
A CMA is a statistical area built around commuting links. The City of Toronto, Peel, York, Durham, and Halton are census divisions with political boundaries. The two sets of areas do not match exactly, so adding the regional rows will not reproduce the CMA figure.
The estimates also record flows, not reasons. The net loss to other parts of Ontario fits a picture of residents moving outward, but the tables do not say why any household moved. Statistics Canada’s own release ties the slowdown in Toronto mainly to fewer temporary residents, not to the housing market.
Last census and the next
The City of Toronto had an estimated 3,358,275 residents in 2026. The last full census, in 2021, counted 2,794,356 in the city and 6,202,225 in the Toronto CMA. From 2016 to 2021 the city grew 2.3 percent, while Halton grew 8.8 percent, Durham 7.9 percent, York 5.7 percent, and Peel 5.0 percent, according to the City of Toronto’s census backgrounder. Results of the 2026 Census are not out, so every later figure on this page is an estimate.
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Common questions
Did Toronto’s population really fall?
The estimate for the City of Toronto was a decline of about 9,000 for the year ending July 1, 2025, and the CMA was essentially flat. One year of estimates is not a trend, and the figures can be revised.
Which Greater Toronto Area regions grew?
Durham (about 17,000), York (about 11,000), and Halton (about 7,000) grew in the 2025 estimates. Peel declined by about 22,000.
Where can the numbers be checked?
Statistics Canada tables 17-10-0149-01 (CMAs) and 17-10-0153-01 (census divisions) hold the estimates, and The Daily of January 14, 2026 summarizes the CMA results.
Why did the Toronto area slow so sharply?
Statistics Canada points to non-permanent residents. The CMA went from a net gain of 228,025 to a net loss of 44,792 in one year.
Last verified: October 2026
Sources
- Statistics Canada, The Daily, January 14, 2026, population estimates for census metropolitan areas, July 1, 2025
- Toronto Metropolitan University, Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, blog entry 104, 2026
- City of Toronto City Planning, 2021 Census Backgrounder: Population and Dwelling Counts, February 2022
- Statistics Canada, The Daily, February 9, 2022, 2021 Census population counts
Related reading
- Toronto facts: location, population, geography and weather
- What counts as Toronto: boundaries and province
- Toronto compared with other Canadian cities in the 2021 Census
- Toronto population by census, 1861 to 2021
- North York: history of the former municipality
Cite this page
APA: History of Toronto. (2026, October 27). Did Toronto’s Population Fall? What the Estimates Show. http://localhost:8210/blog/toronto-population-drops-as-greater-toronto-area-continues-to-expand-rapidly
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